Report to/Rapport au :

Corporate Services and Economic Development Committee

Comité des services organisationnels et du développement économique

and Council/et au Conseil

8 September 2003/le 8 septembre 2003

Submitted by/Soumis par : Kent Kirkpatrick, General Manager/Directeur général

Corporate Services Department / Services généraux

Contact/Personne-ressource : Ron Gillespie, Director, Fleet Services/

Directeur des Services du parc automobile

842-3636, ext. 2201, ron.gillespie@city.ottawa.on.ca

Ref No: ACS2003-CRS-FLT-0004

SUBJECT: HYBRID BUS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

OBJET : PLAN D’IMPLÉMENTATION DES AUTOBUS HYBRIDES

REPORT RECOMMENDATIONS

That the Corporate Services and Economic Development Committee recommend Council approve in principle a phased approach to hybrid bus implementation, as outlined in the report, consisting of:

· Phase 1: Hybrid Technology and Feasibility Study

· Phase 2: Hybrid Bus Acquisition

· Phase 3: Preparations to Introduction

· Phase 4: Hybrid Bus Performance Analysis

RECOMMANDATIONS DU RAPPORT

Que le Comité des services organisationnels et du développement économique recommande au Conseil municipal d’approuver en principe l’approche progressive en ce qui a trait à la mise en service d’autobus hybrides telle qu’elle est énoncée dans le rapport et consistant à :

· Phase 1 : étude de faisabilité et des technologies hybrides

· Phase 2 : achat d’autobus hydrides

· Phase 3 : préparatifs à l’introduction

· Phase 4 : analyse de la performance des autobus hybrides

BACKGROUND

At City Council Meeting 29, on 27 March 2002, the Fleet Emissions Reduction Strategy (Item No. 6 of Transportation and Planning Committee Report 20) was approved. A mid-term component of the strategy is the procurement of hybrid diesel-electric transit buses, within 5 to 10 years. Since the March 2002 meeting, preparatory work to implement hybrid technology has advanced. The state of the technology has been reviewed and detailed planning has commenced. This report provides an update on the work that has been completed to date and presents the proposed staged approach to introducing hybrid technology into the City’s transit fleet. The implementation plan needs to consider several aspects including infrastructure changes to accommodate electric propulsion systems; battery storage and maintenance; technician and operator training; and bus selection criteria.

As a transitional vehicle between a diesel and a zero-emission fleet, hybrid diesel-electric buses offer significant advantages. The diesel engine of a hybrid bus is smaller than a standard transit diesel engine and consequently fuel consumption and emissions are reduced. Additionally, zero emissions can be obtained for short durations on certain hybrid configurations, by running on battery power. Hybrid buses also employ regenerative braking technology, which increases fuel economy by recycling energy that otherwise would be lost. Because transit buses conduct frequent stops, operate at low average speed and are required to accelerate frequently, they represent a good application for hybrid technology and regenerative braking.

Canadian emission standards continue to be aligned with U.S. standards. Consequently, the U.S. 2007 standard for heavy-duty diesel engine emissions will impose more stringent restrictions on new vehicles produced for the Canadian market. It is anticipated that the introduction of hybrid technology into the City fleet will allow us to meet these new emission requirements.

DISCUSSION

The introduction of diesel-electric hybrid technology into transit services will impact all aspects of operations. New maintenance skills will be needed to maintain new electrical and electronic components. Buildings will need to be modified to integrate battery charging systems and increase battery storage space. Bus operators will be required to learn how to most effectively brake when using regenerative braking. Many activities will have to be completed before the first hybrid bus arrives in Ottawa. The first step, however, will be the selection of the hybrid technology that will best meet the City’s needs for use in both standard and articulated buses.

The Hybrid Bus Implementation Plan will be executed in four distinct phases.

Phase 1 - Hybrid Technology and Feasibility Study (2004-2005): The primary objective of Phase 1 is to select, through an independent study, the appropriate hybrid diesel-electric technology that will best meet the requirements for transit service; e.g., parameters to be considered could include the feasibility of obtaining zero emissions in the central core of the City. The configuration of the hybrid design and the selection of certain components will determine the type and level of activities applicable to subsequent phases of the plan. In order to ensure consistency and support from higher levels of governments, the hybrid configuration will meet provincial environmental and other technical authorities requirement. This study will also identify the major infrastructure changes required and assess in detail the cost implications of this technology. A decision point will be reached at the end of Phase 1 whereby Council will be requested to approve continuation based on results of the feasibility study in a subsequent report.

Phase 2 - Hybrid Bus Acquisition (2005-2007): Phase 2 pertains to hybrid bus acquisition and is comprised of a series of tasks similar to those applicable to a conventional diesel bus acquisition. Because new technologies are being introduced, the detailed hybrid configuration and design will only be known through actual procurement, before infrastructure changes are initiated. Phase 2 will begin in the latter half of 2005, with the preparation of the specification and issuance of the Request for Proposal. Once a supplier is selected through the competitive process, the procurement will be paused for about one year to allow preparation activities of Phase 3 to take place, before production and deliveries of the hybrids begin in 2007.

Phase 3 - Preparations to Introduction (2006-2007): Phase 3 of the plan relates to the infrastructure changes that will be necessary to support the selected hybrid technology, including preparing the work force for this transition. Personnel training and the preparation of supplementary support documentation will be required to accommodate the specialized skills needed to maintain the hybrid fleet; e.g., battery charging and maintenance procedures. Operator training will be required to accommodate the performance characteristics of the selected hybrid, such as regenerative braking. This phase will also include the acquisition of hybrid specific support equipment such as electric motor repair tools, battery chargers, etc. Additionally, bus storage and garage modifications will probably be necessary to support the hybrid buses.

Phase 4 - Hybrid Bus Performance Analysis (2007-2008): The objective of Phase 4 of the implementation plan is to validate the performance characteristics of the selected hybrid bus design against the requirements specification. A performance analysis will be carried out using an evaluation plan and test matrix developed in Phase 2. A comparison to data collected from in-service hybrids in other cities will also be completed. An important part of this phase will be performance assessment under Ottawa winter conditions.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS

The environmental benefit of using hybrid diesel-electric buses compared to conventional diesel has been demonstrated in tests performed by Environment Canada, using hybrid and conventional diesel buses in service at New York City Transit.

The tests compared the Orion VI hybrid diesel-electric bus, which is representative of the current New York City hybrid procurement order, with the Orion V conventional diesel bus. Emissions and fuel economy showed significant overall improvement for the hybrid as compared to the conventional diesel; that is:

· carbon dioxide was reduced by approximately 38%,

· 49% reduction for oxides of nitrogen,

· 60% reduction for particulate matter,

· 38% reduction for carbon monoxide, and

· fuel economy improved by a minimum of 10% (operational) and a maximum of 59% (laboratory), 25% can be reasonably expected.

The most significant exhaust emission is carbon dioxide, which accounts for about two-thirds of the man-made component of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide is included in the Kyoto protocol and is recognized as the major contributor to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Relative to the other exhaust emissions, the Environment Canada tests showed that the bulk amount of carbon dioxide emitted ranged from about 100 times the amount of nitrogen oxides to about 100,000 times the amount of particulate matter, for the conventional diesel bus. Consequently, for the City transit bus fleet, a 38% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions – potentially achieved by the use of hybrid diesel-electric buses - translates to an annual reduction of about 35,000 tons of emitted greenhouse gases, once the transit fleet is completely converted to hybrid technologies. This reduction represents 30% of the carbon dioxide that the City’s gasoline and diesel fleets produce annually, and over 1% of all of the greenhouse gases produced annually in the Ottawa region.

FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS

Introduction of the hybrid technology will require incremental capital funds of $800,000 in support of this implementation plan, distributed between phases 1, 3 and 4 of the table below. These specific requirements will be included in the 2004 budget submission as a new capital program called Hybrid Bus Implementation.

Hybrid Implementation Plan Phases	Budgeted (‘000)	Incremental (‘000)		Revised (‘000)	Budget Year
Hybrid Implementation Plan Phases	Budgeted (‘000)	Hybrid Bus	Plan	Revised (‘000)	Budget Year
1 - Hybrid Technology Study			$200	$ 200	2004
2 - Hybrid Bus Acquisition	$ 21,000	$13,500		$ 34,500	2006
Bus Replacement 900525 (30 buses)	$ 13,700	$8,800		$ 22,500
Bus Growth 900874 (16 buses)	$ 7,300	$4,700		$ 12,000
3 - Preparations to Introduction			$500	$ 500	2006
4 - Hybrid Bus Performance Analysis			$100	$ 100	2007
Sub-totals		$13,500	$800
TOTAL	$21,000	$14,300		$ 35,300

The more expensive hybrid diesel-electric buses will also impact the capital programs starting in 2006 as shown in Phase 2 of the table above. For example and based on the City’s approved 2003 budget, 46 standard diesel buses have been identified as part of the 2006 capital programs, split between replacement (30 buses) and growth (16 buses) requirements. Acquiring the hybrid buses, based on 1.5 times the 2003 price of $500,000 per bus, will require a budget revision of $13,500,000 for those 2006 programs, unless these are compensated by supplementary funding or further government subsidies. City staff will seek a maximum level of government subsidies at both federal and provincial levels, to meet the incremental cost for the hybrid buses to sustain the requirement of 46 buses for 2006 and quantities of subsequent years. Therefore, the 2006 and follow-on years capital allocations for bus acquisition will be adjusted upward starting in the 2004 Budget to reflect this reality. Detailed financial analysis and planning will be part of the Phase 1 work and decision point.

For the operational budgets a fuel savings of approximately $200,000 - or better if fuel economy is greater than 25% - will be realized in the first year of operation of the 2006 hybrid bus fleet of 46 (based on a price per litre of $0.545). This will provide a payback period of four years for the incremental cost associated with the new Hybrid Bus Implementation capital program. Additional life cycle savings are expected to be generated, but cannot be estimated at this time. Part of the phase 1 study will compare both capital and operational costs - two of the selection factors - of each diesel-electric technology. The life cycle and fuel cost savings will be validated during phase 4 of the plan.

CONSULTATION

There has been no public consultation or notification. This report has no immediate impact on transit or other City services, or on property taxes. However, appropriate consultations/notifications with the public and Ministry of Transportation of Ontario authorities will be carried out throughout all phases of the program, and is expected to include press releases and hybrid technology demonstrations. A detailed public relations plan will be prepared as part of the Phase 1 study.

ATTACHMENTS

Document 1 – Hybrid Bus Implementation Plan

DISPOSITION

Based on preparatory work for hybrid implementation, hybrid diesel-electric buses remain the centrepiece of the mid-term component of the City’s Fleet Emissions Reduction Strategy. Fleet Services will continue detailed planning and preparations based on a phased approach for the implementation and acquisition of hybrid diesel-electric technology. Expenditures related to executing the proposed implementation plan will be approved through the annual budget cycle starting in 2004. A new capital program, called Hybrid Bus Implementation, will be initiated for this purpose.

1.0 INTRODUCTION

At City Council Meeting 29, on 27 March 2002, the Fleet Emissions Reduction Strategy (Item No. 6 of Transportation and Planning Committee Report 20) was approved. The strategy provides for the development of a cost-effective emissions reduction program for the City’s transit fleet, with the ultimate goal of achieving a zero emission fleet within a 20-year horizon. A mid-term component of the strategy is the procurement of hybrid diesel-electric transit buses, within 5 to 10 years.

Since the March 2002 meeting, preparatory work to implement hybrid technology has advanced. The state of the technology has been reviewed and detailed planning has commenced. The implementation plan needs to consider several aspects including infrastructure changes to accommodate electric propulsion systems; battery storage and maintenance; technician and operator training; and bus selection criteria.

The objective of this document is to report progress to date, and in particular to provide:

· a review of basic hybrid diesel-electric technology, and

· an overview of the planning, including the estimated costs to introduce hybrid buses into the City’s transit fleet.

2.0 REVIEW OF HYBRID DIESEL-ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGY

2.1 What is hybrid diesel-electric technology?

Hybrid diesel-electric technology combines an electric propulsion system with a conventional internal combustion diesel engine, to drive the vehicle’s wheels.

Essentially, two generic diesel-electric hybrid configurations have emerged. In a “series” configuration, the vehicle’s drive wheels are driven either by a single electric motor, as shown on the left pictorial of Figure 1, or by independent wheel electric motors (not shown in Figure 1). The diesel engine is used only to drive an electric generator. Typically, the electric motor(s) may draw energy from either the batteries, or directly from the generator.

Conversely, in a “parallel” configuration (right pictorial of Figure 2), both the electric drive motor and the diesel engine are mechanically coupled to the vehicle’s drive wheels. Generally, the diesel engine preferentially powers the drive train under low load conditions. The electric motor draws energy from the batteries to supply additional tractive power, such as during periods of acceleration or when climbing hills.

Figure 1: Pictorial representation of the general hybrid configurations.

Source: Electric Transit Vehicle Institute

Typically, for both hybrid configurations, the electric drive motor also functions as a generator, to recover energy from regenerative braking and supply it back to the batteries. Regenerative braking allows the propulsion system to load the drive axle during braking, converting kinetic (motion) energy into electrical energy.

Each of the hybrid configurations has advantages, as well as disadvantages. The appropriate hybrid design is dependent on several factors, including the intended duty application.

2.2 Why use hybrid diesel-electric buses?

In general, electric propulsion vehicles are valued because fossil fuel consumption and vehicle emissions are reduced to zero. Consequently, the City’s long-term strategy is to procure transit buses with near-zero emissions, using electric propulsion based on fuel-cell technology. However, fuel cell technology is not yet fully developed. Additionally, current all-electric vehicles have limited onboard energy storage systems that are dependent on batteries, and therefore have limited range and require frequent recharging from an external power source.

As a transitional vehicle between a diesel and a zero-emissions fleet, hybrid diesel-electric buses offer significant advantages. The diesel engine of a hybrid bus is smaller than a standard transit diesel engine and consequently fuel consumption and emissions are reduced. Additionally, zero emissions can be obtained for short durations on certain hybrid configurations, by running on battery power. Hybrid buses also employ regenerative braking technology, which increases fuel economy by recycling energy that otherwise would be lost. Because transit buses conduct frequent stops, operate at low average speed and are required to accelerate frequently, they represent a good application for hybrid technology and regenerative braking.

The results from emission testing performed on the hybrid diesel-electric buses from New York City Transit (NYCT) were consistent with this rationale (NYCT Diesel Hybrid-Electric Buses - Final Results). Figure 2 below shows results from this testing.

Figure 2: Emission test results for hybrid diesel-electric and conventional diesel transit buses, from Environment Canada.

{Source:http://www.ott.doe.gov/out/field_ops/pdfs/nyct_final_results.pdf}

· carbon dioxide (CO₂) was reduced by approximately 38%,

· 49% reduction for oxides of nitrogen,

· 60% reduction for particulate matter,

· 38% reduction for carbon monoxide, and

· fuel economy improved by a minimum of 10% (operational) and a maximum of 59% (laboratory), 25% can be reasonably expected.

The most significant exhaust emission is CO₂, which accounts for about two-thirds of the man-made component of greenhouse gases. CO₂is included in the Kyoto protocol and is recognized as the major contributor to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Note that in Figure 2,a relative scale has been used for the vertical axis to accommodate the graphical representation of the various gases. Relative to the other exhaust emissions, the Environment Canada tests showed that the bulk amount of carbon dioxide emitted ranged from about 100 times the amount of nitrogen oxides to about 100,000 times the amount of particulate matter, for the conventional diesel bus.

On an individual bus basis, these results show a CO₂reduction of over 1 kg for every mile driven, for the hybrid bus as compared to the conventional diesel. For the City transit bus fleet, the 38% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions translates to an annual reduction of about 35,000 tons of emitted greenhouse gases, once the fleet is completely converted to hybrid technologies (based on the 2002 Logtech report submitted with the Fleet Emission Reduction Strategy - City Council Meeting 29). This reduction represents about 30% of the CO₂ that the City’s gasoline and diesel fleets produce annually, and over 1% of all of the greenhouse gases produced annually in the Ottawa region.

Canadian emission standards continue to be aligned with U.S. standards. Consequently, the U.S. 2007 standard for heavy-duty diesel engine emissions will impose more stringent restrictions on new vehicles produced for the Canadian market. It is anticipated that the introduction of hybrid technology into the City fleet will allow us to meet these new emission requirements.

The introduction of hybrid technology will allow a smooth transfer of technology initially from all-diesel to diesel-electric buses, and finally from diesel-electric to all-electric. This technology transfer will impact all aspects of operations including infrastructure, training etc. and is discussed further in the next section, and in Section 3.

2.3 What is the infrastructure impact of using hybrid diesel-electric buses?

As a transitional vehicle, the hybrid diesel-electric bus offers other advantages. It can more easily co-exist with today’s transit diesel bus, with minimal impact on the current infrastructure. For example, New York City found that facility conversion for accommodating hybrid diesel-electric buses was relatively minor; i.e., the hybrid buses required the addition of an electric charging system and charging stations for occasional conditioning of the batteries, and a crane for removing and installing battery packs on the top of the buses.

In addition, regarding the long-term strategy pertaining to fuel cell technology, the acquisition of hybrid diesel-electric buses in the mid-term offers a more seamless transition. For example, health and safety issues, such as the potentially more serious consequences of electric shock as compared to conventional diesel, will have to be addressed in preparation for the application of both hybrid and fuel cell technologies. (The risk of electric shock – both the likelihood of occurrence and the consequence – will be mitigated through proper engineering, labelling and maintenance practices.) Additionally, new maintenance skills required for the electric drive system will be similar for both hybrid and fuel cell buses.

Infrastructure impact, in preparation for the introduction of hybrid buses into the City fleet, is discussed further in Section 3.2.

2.4 Who is operating hybrid diesel-electric buses?

Around the globe, hybrid diesel-electric buses are either in transit service today, or will be in the near future.

New York City, New York

The most significant user of hybrid buses to date has been NYCT (reference: previous NYCT link). In 1998, New York began operating ten heavy-duty, 40-foot, hybrid diesel-electric buses, from Orion Bus Industries (prototype Model VI). These first buses were placed in service in 2000 as part of a pilot project sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Subsequent to a successful pilot project, the next generation Orion VII hybrid recently passed the structural and in-service qualification testing required by NYCT, clearing the way for deliveries of 325 hybrid buses beginning in 2003.

Seattle, Washington

The King County Transportation Department and the Central Puget Sound Transit Authority are in the process of soliciting proposals for an anticipated procurement of 272 heavy duty, 60-foot articulated, low floor, diesel and hybrid diesel-electric buses.

Others

Diesel-electric hybrid buses are also in revenue service in other locations in the US, including Orange County California, Cedar Rapids Iowa, Hartford Connecticut and Boston Massachusetts, where these buses operate as part of demonstration and evaluation programs (Transit Cooperative Research Program [TRCP] Report 59). Several European and Asian cities have also operated diesel-electric hybrid buses for urban transit operation. In Japan, Hino Motors has been a leader in the development of heavy-duty hybrid drive systems.

3.0 HYBRID BUS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Detailed planning for the acquisition and introduction of hybrid diesel-electric transit buses for the City of Ottawa is currently underway. A brief description of the implementation plan and estimated costs are presented in this section.

3.1 Overview of the Plan and Schedule

As shown in the chart of Figure 3, the Hybrid Bus Implementation Plan will be executed in the following four distinct phases. Major milestones are shown in the chart for each phase of the Plan.

· Phase 1: Hybrid Technology and Feasibility Study – 1st quarter of 2004 to the 2nd quarter

of 2005.

· Phase 2: Hybrid Bus Acquisition – 3rd of 2005 to the third quarter of 2007.

· Phase 3: Preparations to Introduction - 3rd quarter of 2006 to the last quarter of 2007.

· Phase 4: Hybrid Bus Performance Analysis – 2nd quarter of 2007 to the 2nd quarter of 2008.

3.2 Preliminary Planning Details

Phase 1 – Hybrid Technology and Feasibility Study

The primary objective of Phase 1 is to select, through an independent study, the appropriate hybrid diesel-electric technology that will best meet the requirements for transit service; e.g., parameters to be considered could include the feasibility of obtaining zero emissions in the central core of the City. The configuration of the hybrid design and the selection of certain components will determine the type and level of activities applicable to subsequent phases of the plan. In order to ensure consistency and support from higher levels of governments, the hybrid configuration selected will meet the provincial, environmental and other technical authorities requirements. The scope of the study will include:

(i) demonstration of available hybrid bus designs and operational trials,

(ii) analysis of the capital and operating cost, and performance results,

(iii) recommendations for hybrid acquisition,

(iv) identification of the major infrastructure changes required, and

(v) public and other levels of government consultations/notifications.

Each technology will be evaluated based on capital and operating costs, in addition to performance in revenue service, and each will be compared to its competitors. From this analysis, and with participation from other City departments, the technologies for hybrid configuration and energy storage will be recommended. The services of a consultant will be required for most of the 10 months of this phase, which begins in March of 2004. The results from the study will be made public through presentations to Council committees. Appropriate consultations/notifications with the public and higher levels of government will be carried out throughout all phases of the program, and is expected to include press releases and hybrid technology demonstrations.

This study will also identify the major infrastructure changes required and assess in detail the cost implications of this technology. A decision point will be reached at the end of Phase 1 whereby Council will be requested to approve continuation based on results of the feasibility study in a subsequent report.

The funding requirement for Phase 1 will be presented to Council in the 2004 Budget submission, with its own program entity separate from the bus procurement programs. A new capital program, called Hybrid Bus Implementation, has been initiated for this purpose. Additionally, the financial impact of the recommended hybrid technology on future budgets will be known as a result of the Phase 1 study. These will be included as refined estimates in the capital plans of the 2005 budget submission to Council.

Also shown in the chart of Figure 3 is the approximate scheduling for the Emission Reduction Strategy Review task. This overview task provides a mechanism for monitoring all technological developments in emissions reduction and possibly new funding sources, and for revising the City’s Emissions Reductions Strategy, if necessary. The updated strategy will be presented to Council during the first half of 2004, concurrent with the start of the Phase 1 study, thereby providing an additional opportunity to review the hybrid bus program.

Phase 2 – Hybrid Bus Acquisition

Phase 2 pertains to hybrid bus acquisition and is comprised of a series of tasks similar to those applicable to a conventional diesel bus acquisition. Because new technologies are being introduced, the detailed hybrid configuration and design will only be known through actual procurement, before infrastructure changes are initiated. Phase 2 will begin in the latter half of 2005, with the preparation of the specification and issuance of the Request for Proposal (RFP). Once a supplier is selected through the competitive process, the procurement will be paused for about one year to allow preparation activities of Phase 3 to take place, before production and deliveries of the hybrids begin in 2007. It is expected that the delivery of the hybrid buses will commence in the second quarter of 2007, with revenue service beginning soon afterwards.

The 40-foot bus capital programs (900525 for replacement and 900874 for growth) will accommodate the procurement process and subsequent awarding of a contract to the preferred supplier. The negotiated price per bus will ultimately determine the budget requirements for 2007. Current estimate for the acquisition of a diesel-electric hybrid bus is 1.5 times the 2003 price of $500,000. This will require a capital budget revision as per phase 2 of Table 2 below unless supplementary funding or further government subsidies compensate these programs. Subsidies should be maximized for this acquisition through organizations such as the Canadian Urban Transit Association and the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario. This is needed to meet the incremental cost for the hybrid buses and to sustain the replacement plan requirements of 46 buses for 2006 and subsequent years planned quantities.

It is also anticipated that the second review of the City’s Emission Reduction Strategy will be completed and presented to Council during the first half of 2007, concurrent with the implementation of Phases 2 and 3 of the Plan.

Phase 3 – Preparations to Introduction

Phase 3 of the plan relates to the infrastructure changes that will be necessary to support the selected hybrid technology, including preparing the work force for this transition through training. Additionally, hybrid specific support equipment that will be required is expected to include:

· Portable battery chargers, for periodic electrical conditioning (charging and equalization) of bus batteries.

· Overhead crane, for handling bus roof-mounted electrical and electronic equipment.

· Dynamometer, for testing electric drive motor characteristics.

· Personnel protective equipment, such as fall protection cabling, high voltage mats and gloves.

· Diagnostic equipment.

· Stores improvements to handle batteries and other hybrid components.

Indoor bus storage and garage modifications will probably be necessary to support the hybrid buses. These may consist of the any of the following, and potentially more if the hybrid system is more electrical than diesel or includes a different engine such as a diesel turbine:

· Upgrades to the building electrical service to accommodate battery charging including control of power quality and load management, in addition to modifications to provide circuit and personnel protection.

· Construction of a bus charging bay and installation of a floor-mounted battery charger; one bay for about every 100 hybrids can be expected.

· Construction of a bus electrical bay, complete with scaffolding, caging and an overhead crane, for specialized work on bus high voltage systems, including battery pack removal and installation.

· An enlarged battery shop, for storage and rebuilding of bus batteries.

· The addition of an electrical shop, equipped with an electric motor dynamometer, for repair and rebuilding of electric drive motors / generators.

Personnel training and the preparation of supplementary support documentation will be required to accommodate the specialized skills needed to maintain the hybrid fleet. For example, new corrective maintenance tasks are expected to include:

· rebuilding of battery tubs, and electric motors and generators,

· diagnostic testing of bus propulsion systems, and

· replacement of propulsion electronic control systems.

Similarly, new preventive maintenance tasks will include:

· bus battery power pack recharging/conditioning,

· generator/motor test and inspection,

· regenerative brake component inspection and system testing, and

· propulsion control system testing.

Most hybrid buses operate identically to standard buses. However, operator training may be required to accommodate the performance characteristics of the selected hybrid, such as regenerative braking. Rudimentary safety training related to high voltage systems will be required for mechanics and technicians. Additionally, the fire department must be capable of responding to emergency situations, with full knowledge of the new hazards.

Accurate costs associated with this preparatory phase will not be known until a particular hybrid technology is selected. As such, the estimates presented in Section 3.3 are preliminary and are based on documented demonstration and implementation of hybrid technologies in the United States. The newly established Hybrid Implementation capital program will fund the activities under Phase 3.

Phase 4 – Hybrid Bus Performance Analysis

The objective of Phase 4 of the implementation plan is to validate the performance characteristics of the selected hybrid bus design against the requirements specification. A performance analysis will be carried out using an evaluation plan and test matrix developed in Phase 2. A comparison to data collected from in-service hybrids in other cities will also be completed. An important part of this phase will be performance assessment under Ottawa winter conditions. It is expected that the results from this analysis will be used to manage warranty provisions, validate life cycle cost savings, including fuel, and to provide feedback for future bus procurements.

Participation of the bus manufacturer in this phase of the project will be required as a condition of the procurement. Through this partnership, the manufacturer will assist City staff and an independent consultant in assessing vehicle performance and initial life cycle costs. This should minimize the cost of validating the new technology. The cost to the City, including hiring of a consultant, will be identified in the new Hybrid Implementation capital program and is expected to be less than the Phase 1 cost.

3.3 Overall Costs

Preliminary estimates for the major cost factors of the Hybrid Implementation Plan are shown in Table 1, which follows. These estimates represent the funding that will be required to introduce the new diesel-electric hybrid technology into transit service.

Table 1: Estimated cost of the Hybrid Implementation Plan.

Phase	Primary Cost Factor	Estimated Cost of Phase	Budget Year
1	consultant services	$200,000	2004
2	Hybrid bus additional cost at $250,000 per bus	$13,500,000 (for 46 hybrids)	2006
3	support equipment and garage upgrades	$500,000 (fleet of ≤ 100 buses)	2006
4	consultant services	$100,000	2007

As shown, the primary cost associated with the Phase 1 study is the acquisition of consultant services to plan and conduct the trial, to analyze the data, and to prepare a technical report.

For Phase 2, the capital cost increase shown for the hybrid bus is based on the current price estimates, which is about 50% higher than for conventional diesel buses. The primary contributors to this increase are: (i) a more complex and sophisticated electronic control system, (ii) the battery packs for energy storage, (iii) the electric drive motor(s), and (iv) supplier recovery of research and development costs. It is expected that costs will decline as the technology matures and as more units are produced. For example, the purchase price of the second generation Orion hybrid, for the NYCT hybrid acquisitions, was $80,000 US less than the first generation average bus cost (i.e., limited versus high production).

The Phase 3 infrastructure estimate includes costs derived from NYCT and Orion Bus Industries. The dominant contributors to the NYCT costs were for battery support and charging equipment, and were based on a fleet size of up to 100 hybrids. It is estimated that a fleet of this size could be integrated into an existing bus garage for less than $200,000 US in infrastructure modifications. This conclusion is predicated on the development of a just-in-time system for battery removal and replacement thereby alleviating in-house battery storage requirements. However, the Phase 3 cost in the table above also includes preliminary estimates for electrical and enlarged battery shops, in addition to modifications to accommodate charging and electrical maintenance bays. The Phase 3 estimate is regarded to be the minimum infrastructure cost for the introduction of the hybrid buses, as it is anticipated that the bulk of the Phase 3 costs would have to be absorbed regardless of the initial fleet size, up to a maximum of 100 hybrids; i.e., it is expected infrastructure costs would approximately double for a hybrid fleet size of between 100 and 200 hybrids.

The Phase 4 performance analysis phase has not yet been detailed and will be dependent, to a large degree, on the Phase 1 results. Nevertheless, it is expected that the scope (and cost) of this phase - if the required technical services are contracted out - will be less than the Phase 1 study.

3.4 Cost Management

Introduction of the hybrid technology will require incremental capital funds of $800,000 in support of this implementation plan, distributed between phases 1, 3 and 4 of Table 2 below. These specific requirements will be included in the 2004 budget submission as a new capital program called Hybrid Bus Implementation.

Table 2: Estimate of the capital funds required for the introduction of hybrid buses.

Hybrid Implementation Plan Phases	Budgeted (‘000)	Incremental (‘000)	Revised (‘000)	Budget Year
1 - Hybrid Technology Study		$ 200	$ 200	2004
2 - Hybrid Bus Acquisition	$ 21,000	$13,500	$ 34,500	2006
Bus Replacement 900525 (30 buses)	$ 13,700	$ 8,800	$ 22,500
Bus Growth 900874 (16 buses)	$ 7,300	$ 4,700	$ 12,000
3 - Preparations to Introduction		$ 500	$ 500	2006
4 - Hybrid Bus Performance Analysis		$ 100	$ 100	2007
Implementation Plan sub-total		$800
TOTAL	$21,000		$ 35,300

The more expensive hybrid diesel-electric buses will also impact the capital programs starting in 2006 as shown in Phase 2 of Table 2 above. For example and based on the City’s approved 2003 budget, 46 standard diesel buses have been identified as part of the 2006 capital programs, split between replacement (30 buses) and growth (16 buses) requirements. Acquiring the hybrid buses, based on 1.5 times the 2003 price of $500,000 per bus, will require a budget revision of $13,500,000 for those 2006 programs, unless these are compensated by supplementary funding or further government subsidies. City staff will seek a maximum level of government subsidies at both federal and provincial levels, to meet the incremental cost for the hybrid buses to sustain the requirement of 46 buses for 2006 and quantities of subsequent years. Therefore, the 2006 and follow-on years capital allocations for bus acquisition will be adjusted upward starting in the 2004 Budget to reflect this reality. Detailed financial analysis and planning will be part of the Phase 1 work and decision point.

For the operational budgets a fuel savings of approximately $200,000 - or better if fuel economy is greater than 25% - will be realized in the first year of operation of the 2006 hybrid bus fleet of 46 (price per litre $0.545). This will provide a payback period of four years for the incremental cost associated with the new Hybrid Bus Implementation capital program. Additional life cycle savings are expected (but cannot be estimated at this time) to be generated, as evaluated during the phase 1 study since it will compare both capital and operational costs - two of the selection factors - of each diesel-electric technology. The life cycle and fuel cost savings will be validated during phase 4 of the plan.

4.0 CONCLUSION

Based on preparatory work for hybrid implementation, which included a review of the current state of hybrid technology, it is concluded that the acquisition of hybrid diesel-electric buses should remain as the centrepiece of the City’s mid-term component for emissions reduction.

Furthermore, hybrid implementation funded as a new capital program - with a preliminary cost estimate of $800,000 of additional capital funds for the introduction of hybrids - will provide an efficient means of maintaining accountability and visibility for the new program.

It is also concluded that a phased approach to hybrid implementation will provide an effective way to optimize bus acquisition and to minimize the risk inherent with the introduction of a new technology. In order to achieve the timeline of the approved Emissions Reduction Strategy, this process should commence in 2004, through the conduct of the Phase 1 Hybrid Technology and Feasibility Study, at an estimated cost of $200,000.