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Growth Projections for Ottawa: 2014-2036

Growth Projections for Ottawa: Prospects for Population, Housing, Employment and Land, 2014-2036

Executive Summary

Projections of long-term change in population and associated housing and employment are fundamental to a community’s ability to plan for land use, housing needs, land requirements, transportation and infrastructure, financing, recreational and social needs, and other basic services.

The City of Ottawa’s long-term growth projections were last updated in 2007. Since then Ottawa’s actual population, housing, and employment have tracked well against these projections and have not required revision. However, after almost a decade it is appropriate that an update be undertaken. At the same time, the projections will be extended from the current 2031 horizon to 2036.

The purpose of this report is to:

  1. Explain the methodology and assumptions used in the projections;
  2. Present the results of the scenarios developed, including the recommended Reference Projection used to develop subsequent housing and employment projections;
  3. Analyse the demand for urban and rural housing by unit type and the associated urban land requirements up to 2036; and
  4. Compare the demand for urban housing land to the supply to assess whether there is a need to add urban land for 2036.

Growth Projections for Ottawa: Prospects for Population, Housing, Employment and Land, 2014-2036 [ PDF 1.213 MB ]

Growth Projections for Ottawa, 2014-2036 Addendum: Inclusion of Recommended Conversions of Employment Land Supply

Introduction

The report Growth Projections for Ottawa: Prospects for Population, Housing, Employment and Land, 2014-2036 provides an overview of the methods and assumptions used for projected population, households, employment and residential land supply to 2036. This report concluded that there is the potential for a small shortfall of residential lands, being the existing designated urban supply and the planned supply in the identified Urban Expansion Study Areas approved through OPA 76, to accommodate the projected single and semi-detached units in 2036. However another source of potential housing supply are employment lands recommended for conversion to non-employment uses through the report “Ottawa Employment land Review Final Report: 2036 Employment Projection Update”. This report assesses the potential capacity of these recommended conversions to supplement the existing and planned supply of residential lands.

Growth Projections for Ottawa, 2014-2036 Addendum: Inclusion of Recommended Conversions of Employment Land Supply [ PDF 148 KB ]