The Climate Projections for the National Capital Region study was developed in partnership with the National Capital Commission and Environment and Climate Change Canada. It uses advanced climate science modeling to predict changes in temperature, precipitation, wind and extreme weather until the year 2100.
- Executive Summary – provides a summary of the study and its key findings
- Volume 1 – provides an overview of the project methodology, findings and implications. It includes results and interpretation for key climate indices.
- Volume 2 – provides plots and tabular data for all the climate indices.
A complete and updated version of the datasets presented in this report is available at Open Ottawa:
The online dataset includes Excel versions of the results in Appendix G and Table 2.1 as well as NetCDF files with more detail than the report (for example, indices calculated for each model and cell). Additional details on the data are also provided on Open Data (for example, model names for each index). Any minor updates to the data sets will be added to Open Ottawa. Please note there may be minor discrepancies between Open Ottawa and the report. If this occurs, the Open Ottawa version should be used.
Impacts of a changing climate
Climate change will impact us all in our daily lives in several ways. For example, more heat waves will increase heat related illnesses, especially for the most vulnerable. Shorter, warmer winters will negatively impact winter recreation. With increased extreme weather events we could see more damage to homes, power outages and strain on emergency services.
It will also impact the way the City operates and plans. Shifting freeze-thaw cycles can damage roads and other infrastructure and more intense rainfall can overwhelm sewer systems and increase the risk of flooding.
There will likely be some positive impacts too. Longer warmer seasons could benefit agriculture and construction. However, warmer weather and changing precipitation patterns will affect ecosystems and may increase conditions for diseases such as Lyme’s disease and West Nile virus.
The impacts of climate change will be looked at in further detail as a part of the climate vulnerability assessment.
Next steps – assessing climate vulnerability in Ottawa
The City is using the climate projections to identify risks from a range of climate hazards. This includes extreme events such as heat waves, flooding and other storms. The projections can also help us identify the risk of gradual changes such as overall increases in temperature and precipitation and shifting seasons. This will help us to:
- Assess how climate change will impact our health and safety, infrastructure, the economy and the environment
- Examine how we’re already adapting to climate change
- Identify where Ottawa is vulnerable in relation to climate change, who will be affected and how, and what the anticipated impacts will be
- Explore ways to reduce these impacts and protect our communities, infrastructure, economy and environment.
The climate vulnerability assessment will guide the development of a long-term climate resiliency strategy and a short-term plan to address immediate priorities.